Forex and Gold Technical Update
Rupee : Rupee bounced back from 48.40 levels as expected. The bias still remains weak for a target of 49.20 plus. Exporters can start booking 48.85 onwards and increase bookings every 10 paise . Bearish. (USD/INR : 48.82)Euro : Euro has broken the 1.4320 levels and picked up momentum again. Immediate term bias slightly bullsh since it could not break 1.40 levels and picked up again. We have to be careful since all the charts are overbought. The weekly trend which determines the medium term view of euro would be broken ONLY once euro stays below 1.3852. Look at going longs at 1.42 levels . (EUR/USD 1.4292)
Sterling : Cable was unable to hold above 1.6625 levels on friday and fell down again despite an increased Dow and Euro. . Strong resistance near 1.6610 levels . We can go long near 1.6350 levels for intraday gains. Only a break of 1.6200-1.6250 would confirm a trend reversal for the pair and target 1.58 again. (GBP/USD 1.6402) . Neutral
Yen : Yen has again entered the weekly triangle consolidation pattern between 92 to 98 levels. Risk aversion and Risk appetite has been playing sea-saw since last couple of months. The triangle pattern is very much visible within the weekly range. Buy at dips close to 93 and sell at 97-98 levels remains the strategy. (USD/JPY 93.94) Rangebound
Aud : Aud has again picked up momentum with increased gold and crude prices. The sell off in commodity prices was reversed in the last 2-3 days. The immediate strategy would be to buy on dips.Only a continous move below 0.8150 would break the trendline and stand bearish for the pair. (AUD/USD -0.8354) In Correction Mode
Gold : Gold has also picked up amazing momentum lately .Bullish only above 960 dollar otherwise rangebound.(Gold- $944.22). Rangebound
Dollar Index : The Dollar Index (basket against 6 currencies with EUR accounting for 57% of the basket) broke the 78.23 support. It suggests that rebound from 77.43 is possibly in corrective three wave structure which in turn indicates that whole medium term fall from 89.62 is not completed yet. Nevertheless we would expect a very strong support near 76 levels and bring a reversal. We need a break of 79.51 is needed to revive the case that dollar index has bottomed out.(Dollar Index - 78.21) Bearish
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DISCLAIMER
These views/ forecasts/ suggestions, though proferred with the best of intentions, are based on our reading of the market at the time of writing. They are subject to change without notice.Though the information sources are believed to be reliable, the information is not guaranteed for accuracy. Those acting in the market on the basis of these are themselves responsible for any profits or losses that might occur, without recourse to us. World financial markets, and especially the Foreign Exchange markets, are inherently risky and it is assumed that those who trade these markets are fully aware of the risk of real loss involved.
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